According to projections from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the economies of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela are expected to experience the highest growth in Latin America in 2024, while Argentina and Haiti are projected to face the steepest declines.
ECLAC has stated that the low-growth trajectory observed in the early months of the year is expected to continue through the end of 2024, with an average growth rate of 1.8%. This is a downward revision from the 2.1% increase projected by the organization in May.
By subregion, the Caribbean is anticipated to achieve the highest growth rate (2.6%), followed by Central America and Mexico (2.2%) and South America (1.5%).
Excluding the Caribbean subregion and specifically Guyana, which is projected to grow by 17.8% due to the oil boom, the top Latin American countries in terms of GDP growth will be the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Honduras.
Below is ECLAC’s economic growth forecast for 2024:
South America Forecast:
- Argentina: -3,6%
- Bolivia: 1,7%
- Brazil: 2,3%
- Chile: 2,6%
- Colombia: 1,3%
- Ecuador: 1,8%
- Paraguay: 3,8%
- Peru: 2,6%
- Uruguay: 3,6%
- Venezuela: 5,0%
Central America and Mexico Forecast:
- Costa Rica: 4,0%
- Cuba: 0,5%
- El Salvador: 3,5%
- Guatemala: 3,5%
- Haiti: -3,0%
- Nicaragua: 7,0%
- Panama: 2,7%
- Dominican Republic: 5,2%
Caribbean Forecast:
- Antigua and Barbuda: 6,3%
- Bahamas: 2,3%
- Barbados: 3,7%
- Belize: 4,1%
- Dominica: 4,6%
- Grenada: 4,1%
- Guyana: 17,8%
- Jamaica: 1,8%
- Saint Kitts and Nevis: 3,0%
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 4,7%
- Saint Lucia: 3,4%
- Suriname: 2,4%
- Trinidad and Tobago: 2,4%
Outlook in Line with IMF and World Bank Forecasts
ECLAC’s downward revision of the economic growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean by three percentage points was not unexpected and aligns with the reductions made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. While the IMF revised its forecast from 2.0% to 1.9% in January, the World Bank adjusted its projection from 2.3% to 1.8% in the same month.
Positive news for the region is anticipated in 2025, with ECLAC forecasting a growth rate of 2.5%, driven particularly by South America.
Source: Bloomberg Línea
